Indo-Pak Future Relations

India and Pakistan share a common colonial history, similar ancient rampage, patronized culture, geopolitical scenarios, topography and economic fashions. However, these fundamental pillars forge a way to bilateral tensions between the nations. Both countries are sighted, conflicting over a varsity of issues with special emphasis on Kashmir and State-Sponsored Terrorism. The two nuclear powers, however, if manage to soothe bilateral relations, it would give a quick stabilization to the South-Asian Trade, Economy, Commerce, and Security. This juncture can only be established through diplomatic channels extended from both sides. Both the countries have resorted to various Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) and People-to-People afflictions, however there is a long road to peace.

The Tussle

• Colonial India was comprised of present-day India, present-day Pakistan, and present-day Bangladesh.
• Following independence from the Imperial British Government and Partition, then India was broken into India (dominated by Hindu population), West Pakistan (present-day Pakistan), and East Pakistan (present-day Bangladesh). Pakistan was formed basis the dominance of Muslims.
• Post partition, diplomatic relationships were established. However, they were adversely affected by the violent partition, the war for the accession of Kashmir, and various territorial disputes.
• After independence, the two countries have witnessed 4 wars and several military skirmishes and standoffs.

The Wars

• India and Pakistan have fought 4 wars.
• The first war, in 1947-48, was fought over the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. With the war, India secured two-thirds of Kashmir, while Pakistan occupied about one-third of it.
• The second war, in 1965, was an event preceded by Pakistan’s Operation Gibraltar.
• The second war was ceased with the establishment of UN-Mandated Ceasefire, USSR and US intervention, and the Tashkent declaration.
• The third war of 1971 is also known as the Liberation War of East Pakistan. This war resulted in the creation of East Pakistan into Bangladesh.
• The last fought war of 1999, between the two countries, was a result of Pakistan intruding on the vacated Indian posts, in the heights of Kashmir. Pakistan withdrew from the war due to international pressure and heavy casualties.

The Current Disputes

The two countries usually sought conflicts over 4 prominent territorial controversies.

1. The Sir Creek Dispute

• The Rann of Kutch houses a 96km long estuary – Sir Creek.
• This disputed territory lies between India’s Kutch and Pakistan’s Sindh. The dispute is primarily over the interpretation of the maritime boundary.
• This dispute is prominent due to the richness of this region in trade support and the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

2. The Siachen Glacier

• Siachen is located in the northern region of the Karakoram Range.
• It is disputed between the two countries since before 1984 none of the countries had permanent watch out over this region.
• According to the Shimla Agreement of 1972, this region was considered barren and useless. However, the agreement did not clarify any international border.
• The Indian Intelligence sighted Pakistan’s attempt to capture Siachen, which led to the commencement of Operation Meghdoot by the Indian Armed Forces.
• The successful operation resulted in India securing heights and a dynamic strategic location.
• According to the Ceasefire of 2003, the region is free from radical movement, however, both countries have their security forces stationed at the specific positions.

3. Kashmir

• The dispute over the former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir is related to its accession into India formally and diplomatically.
• The dispute also deals with ceasefire violations around the Kashmir border.

4. Indus Basin

• India and Pakistan established the Indus Waters Treaty in 1960.
• According to this treaty, Rabi, Beas, and Sutlej are for India’s exclusive use. Pakistan can use Sindh, Chenab, and Jhelum.
• However, the treaty fails to address the contentions of the Indus Basin’s river having an Indian Origin.
• In response to the Pulwama Terror Attack, the Indian Government disallowed the flow of Indian Water share into Pakistan.

5. State-Sponsored Terrorism and Violated Ceasefires

• Terrorism across borders has been a pertinent issue since independence.
• The Ceasefire as agreed on in 2003 has also been violated by the Pakistani side of the border. The recently agreed Ceasefire in February 2021, has also been violated by Pakistan.
• India’s retaliation to Pakistan’s Ceasefire Violations since 2014 has also encouraged terrorist infiltration.
• India has conducted 2 surgical strikes following terror attacks of Pathankot, Uri, and Pulwama.
• India has declared, it shall not entertain bilateral talks until Pakistan resolves housed-terrorism.
• Pakistan is open to talks, with the inclusion of the Kashmir issue.

Confidence Building Measures

• Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) are Diplomatic and Social establishments that help in reducing tensions across borders.
• India and Pakistan have escalated various Military and Non-Military CBMs.
• Both the countries have a common agreement on the ‘Prohibition of Attack against Nuclear Installations and Facilities.’ Under this agreement, both nations exchange the location data of nuclear plants to avoid any attacks.
• Both countries agreed upon ‘Advance Notification on Military Exercises, Manoeuvres and Troop Movements.’
• To avoid unwanted straying into each other’s maritime region, the Indian Coast Guard and Pakistan Maritime Security Agency maintain a communication line.
• The countries maintain a hotline between the Director Generals of Military Operations.
• The countries established Delhi-Lahore Bus Service. This was suspended after the 2001 Parliament Attack. Re-started in 2003. Suspended again after the abrogation of Kashmir’s Special Status in the Indian Constitution.
• The countries maintain the Samjhauta Express connecting India’s Attari to Pakistan’s Lahore. It has seen several suspensions. It is currently suspended due to the revocation of Article 35A and 370 of the Indian Constitution.
• The countries have extended each other humanitarian aid after earthquakes.
• However, such CBMs are prone to be failed due to political contentions, propagandas etcetra.

The year 2019

• The Pulwama Terror Attack and the Indian Airstrike in Balakot Province of Pakistan de-escalated the bilateral ties of the countries.
• After Pulwama, India imposed a 200% import duty on Pakistani goods and removed its Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status.
• Pakistan expelled the Indian High Commissioner and announced trade suspension between the two countries.
• However, Pakistan had to open a few imports from the Indian Market such as sugar, pharma, etc. It also opened the Kartarpur Corridor, which however is mistrusted by some people, seeing Pakistani ties with the Khalistan movement.

The Future Relations

• Soft power policies can play a major role in harnessing positive changes in bilateral relations.
• Pakistan shall begin with reforming its political structure. It should ensure the military doesn’t overpower parliament in matters of international concerns.
• Pakistan should focus on withdrawing state-sponsored and counter-border terrorism, to initiate genuine talks with India.
• International pressure can be pressed onto Pakistan to eliminate terrorism, like FATF’s Grey List Tag.
• The UFA Agreement can also channelize bilateral talks and help lower hatred and other issues.
• India can follow the route of hydro-diplomacy by creating channels for water grids without violating the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960.
• Both the countries can work on people-to-people relations and bridge the gaps through corridors of cultural diplomacy.
• The two countries share similar cultures, and literature can be used to bind the people, instead of spreading hate and political propaganda.
• Sports like Cricket can also establish a diplomatic channel to overcome the differences between the two countries.
• Economic Diplomatic Channels such as liberalizing trade to an extent can also help establish trust between the countries.
• The countries can reduce territorial issues by taking the ASEAN region as an example.

Resources

• IAS Express Net
• Drishti IAS Resources
• Civil Daily
• Byjus IAS Preparation.