Multipolarity World Order

What is Polarity?
In international relations, Polarity is the various ways in which power is distributed in the international systems.

It is distinguished into three parts based on the ways of power distribution.

1. Unipolarity – Unipolarity in international politics is the distribution of power in which only one state exercises.
According to Wohlforth, Unipolar is useful as it “favors the absence of war among great powers and comparatively low levels of competition for prestige or security for two reasons: the leading state’s power advantage removes the problem of hegemonic rivalry from world politics, and it reduces the salience and stakes of balance of power politics among the major states.”

2. Bipolarity– It is the distribution of power between two states having same economic, military and cultural influence.
For example: The US and the USSR during the cold war.

3. Multipolarity– Multipolarity in international politics is the distribution of power within at least three states having nearly same amount of military and cultural influence.

• Approaching a multipolar world order–

With the growth of nations like China, Russia and India, the power will be distributed more in the world but still it will be unevenly spread in the terms of economy, finance and military. This indicates that a multipolar world order is still a dream far away to be accomplished. Current circumstances prove the certainty of the future being very unstable.

Reflections:
There have been several hegemonic cycles such as the Italian city states led by Genoa, the United (Dutch) Provinces, the United Kingdom and the United States which ended with a very long period of dualism of power where the ruler was not powerful enough to rule over his territory but there was not any other country strong enough to become dominant.

The belief of revisionism has its own popularity in some powers. For example, the invasion of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 by Russia and annexing Crimea over which it had long disputes specifically with Turkey. Turkey too is asserting dominance over the Eastern Mediterranean which is weakening its bond with Greece, Egypt, Cyprus and Israel. Meanwhile, there is a rise in the border disputes between India and Pakistan as the Modi government has begun to remove the autonomous status of the disputed territories of Jammu and Kashmir.

This is not the age of city states and nation states. It is the era of continental politics. US, China, Russia, India, Indonesia, Brazil, being very powerful countries at this time, are the size of continents. Their economy is broad and has hundreds of millions of users. They need more influence to protect their security.

Globalisation is another key factor of Multipolarity. It makes the purpose vaguer. For example, Russia’s interference in the US election and the interference of US in the matter of Hong Kong.

It has been observed that there is a policy of triangulation taking its place in Asia. It is seen as an attempt to balance the US and China against each other and get profit for themselves.

Five Reasons for Trend towards Multipolarity

Over the previous year, Morgan Stanley accepts international strains have both come about because of and due to ‘slowbalisation’, inciting a pattern toward multipolarity .

1. US/ China tensions likely to endure: The phase1 trade deal between the US and China was very important. But there is an increasing interference of the US in the matters of Hong Kong which becomes a barrier between the two major powers.

2. Europe, Japan and rest of the world to strike a balancing act: Europe is not able to overcome the challenges because of its relationships with the two major powers. Negotiations are not satisfactory as both the US and China are its key customers and competitors. Japanese corporations are wrongly biased towards the rest of Asia in spite of its rivalries with China.

3. Multilateralism is in retreat: The systems which are based on consensus do not suit to the negotiations between the members which are very diverse. For example, the US decision in WTO’s Appellate Body has undermined its ability to settle disputes. The transition from formal institutions to unilateral action and informal multilateralism is a sign of a multipolar world.

4.Alternate development models are being offered: Improved Sino-Russian relations, the emergence of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, and the New Development Bank (previously the BRICS Bank) are clear signs of a shift to a multipolar world. It sets up a competition for influence between the US and China.

5.Health security concerns may exacerbate slowbalisation: The Covid-19 pandemic has proved that US is not prepared for any pandemic. Specific policies still need to be taken in the US and internationally. It shows that companies should extend their overseas supply chains and that the governments should be ready to help the companies.

• Suggestion: As we have seen that China is now becoming a superpower and if China slows down, so does the growth. But, many regional powers are also growing. They can join continental organizations and form alliances with great powers so that they too can become the powerful engines of the world.

Sources:
• Wikipedia
• Freedomlab
• Morganstanley

-Surbhi Yadav